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Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-season-June
March 90L.INVEST First invest of the year! That doesn't have a chance of developing, being over water that is only half that necessary for formation off the coast of Spain (unusual location for a storm to develop any time of the year!). At near 0% chance of developing in the next two days. Seems there's an invest in the South Atlantic now too. (90Q.INVEST) Yqt1001 00:35, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :Personally I am not expecting an Arlene in March, but in the freak event that happens, I will go downright nuts. Ryan1000 00:59, March 11, 2011 (UTC) ::I find it almost weirder that this is in Vince territory than the fact that it's occurring in March. -Patteroast 18:03, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :::I can't see this developing into anything. If this was in the Gulf/Carribean, maybe, but out here, and this time of year? No. HurricaneFiona 20:02, March 11, 2011 (UTC) ::Gone now, nice to see some action from the world though. (been 2 weeks since anything has developed) Yqt1001 20:12, March 11, 2011 (UTC) April 91L.INVEST Second invest of the year, not going to turn up being much but it's something nonetheless. Yqt1001 20:54, April 20, 2011 (UTC) :Where is 91L? I can't really see anything on the sattelites with any reasonably well-defined structure... This is a water vapor imagery map of the Atlantic from weather.unisys.com, and based on it there is nothing out there but dry air and shear... Here is another from the East Pacific, but nothing is there either. Ryan1000 15:30, April 21, 2011 (UTC) :20% chance, might form. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 16:13, April 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Seems to have pretty much died overnight, was looking way better not long ago. Yqt1001 20:44, April 21, 2011 (UTC) :91L looks like its a subtropical storm now. 72.184.184.158 12:57, April 22, 2011 (UTC) ::10% chance of becoming Arlene, but it's heading northward out to sea and it likely won't affect land anyways, let alone become a TS. Ryan1000 16:29, April 22, 2011 (UTC) Aaand it's gone. Yqt1001 04:46, April 24, 2011 (UTC) :The season comes into gear in about a month and two weeks, but we might not get our first storm until July or August. Even so, it was still fun to watch it while it lasted... Ryan1000 18:38, April 24, 2011 (UTC) May 92L.INVEST New invest in the middle of the Atlantic in relatively cold waters. Don't think we will see much anyways. NHC gives it 20% chance of forming. Yqt1001 18:00, May 23, 2011 (UTC) :It's showing signs of becoming a subtropical storm at the very least, but it's not really going to become anything. The Atlantic season hasn't officially begun yet, although it will in about a week. We may have to wait until mid June or July until our first official storm comes onto us, though. It's usually boring in May... It's my "Break month" from the tropics. Ryan1000 18:44, May 23, 2011 (UTC) ::Is three invests before the season even starts normal? And yeah, I can't really see much forming out of this. Still, with a week to go before the season starts, would be cool to have a pre-season storm... just have to wait and see. HurricaneFiona 19:09, May 23, 2011 (UTC) :::Last year had it's first invest start around now, and it was really active but had a late start. I think we will be seeing an early start and an above average year just judging from the invest activity so far. Yqt1001 20:19, May 23, 2011 (UTC) ::We will be having a La Nina start to the Atlantic hurricane season, but even in La Nina years, it's hard to have a hyper-start to the season... I'm probrably best on calling towards a 2004 or 2008-type season, but by no means a 2005-type season, and an outside chance of a 2010 or 1995 like season. Even a late starter can be very active, but it all depends on what happens with mother nature. Ryan1000 20:29, May 23, 2011 (UTC) :::La Nina seasons shouldn't let our guards down, this season may very well turn out like 1999 IMO. So I'm calling a slow start. In any case, the Gulf should watch out this season. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 21:42, May 23, 2011 (UTC) ::It's not really going to be "La Nina" in the entire season; it's just going to start as La Nina and by August and September, El Nino. 2010 had an August La Nina event, and it was a very active season in the atlantic, but the record-dead pacific lead to 2010 being one of the least active worldwide seasons on record. Neutral years aren't exactly good either... per 2005 and 2008, for example, and neither are El Nino years all the time... 2004, 1992, ect. Ryan1000 00:56, May 24, 2011 (UTC) :Aaaand it's done for. The lack of tropical activity doesn't really surprise me because it's only May, but after this month, the tropics really heat up. I guess I might come back later. Ryan1000 23:07, May 24, 2011 (UTC) June 93L.INVEST 3 hours until the season starts here (though it technically started 1 hour ago) and we got a new invest! This one is just off the coast of the Carolinas in decently warm water. Models take it into Florida before it can fully develop. I don't expect to see much from it. I have my hopes from an AOI north of Panama to become Arlene. The models really seem to love it, some even bringing it to hurricane strength before landfall in Cuba in about 8 days! Yqt1001 01:31, June 1, 2011 (UTC) :Now 30% but it is rapidly moving towards Florida. Yqt1001 11:49, June 1, 2011 (UTC) ::I hope it develops. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] Made landfall on Florida and the models now show it going into the gulf once it reemerges from the other side of Florida. If it can stay intact there is a decent chance it will redevelop. It's moving pretty fast too so it shouldn't be over Florida for too long. Yqt1001 15:37, June 1, 2011 (UTC) :I was not really expecting much out of this weak storm(earlier mentioned in the Pacific forum), and, well, the season has just begun. I don't really see a big difference between the last week of May and first one in June. There is an outside chance it could become Arlene, but I won't count on it. I would expect a slower start, like perhaps mid July or August, but not so much June. We'l wait and see, but I'm not really expecting anything out of 93L. And the area of thunderstorms north of Panama is under too much wind shear to become Arlene. If I had to bet on which one of the two systems would become Arlene in the Atlantic out of this storm or the thunderstorms north of Panama, I would bet this storm, and the chances are not good either way. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 17:03, June 1, 2011 (UTC) ::The shear is supposed to die down quite a bit over the next 2 days. 93L has been downgraded to 20% but the storms north of Panama is up to 10% now. Yqt1001 19:11, June 1, 2011 (UTC) :Well, I don't really want that to happen, but the problem is, if the shear does settle enough, then the storms north of Panama(possibly future Arlene) aren't going to have anything in their way. Early June storms like that are rare; normally it's not very likely for storms to explode in the Carribean at this time of year. It certainly has happened in October a few times(Mitch, Wilma, Hattie, 1924) and in November(Michelle, Paloma, 1912, ect), but many people go home in November, whilst in June and July, are on summer vacation. The difference between storms in the carribean in October/November and June/July is the weather pattern. In June and July, there are lots of storms that develop in the region, but the wind shear is high. In October and November, wind shear isn't very high at all, but thunderstorm activity is scarce. It's just that, when the shear does settle down in June and July, like what happened with Audrey of 1957 or 2005's Dennis and Emily, or when the thunderstorm activity increases in October and November, that's when bad things happen. Both storms are worth watching; I was just mentioning earlier that it's only June 1st, the first day of the season; it's not like it's August yet or anything, but we'll keep on watching these storms either way. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:02, June 1, 2011 (UTC) ::Makes sense. Don't think the shear will go down that much, but it will go down enough to get the storms north of Panama to TS strength according to most models (one model still shows a category 3 storm however). The shear in the GOM, while still going down will be getting less favourable in the area 93L is going to be in so I think that 93L has only today and tomorrow to get it's act together and become a TD at the very most. It's also moving very quickly so I'm unsure how much time it will have to develop before it makes landfall in Texas/Mexico. It practically crossed Florida in 4 hours causing quite a bit less damage to the storm than a storm that would be going 10mph slower. Yqt1001 20:40, June 1, 2011 (UTC) :The intensity of the storm in the carribean right now really all depends on the speed of that storm. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was nearly stationary, or moving very slowly in the carribean, which explains how it got to a category 5. It did weaken when it encountered the shear in the gulf, but it still hit Florida as a powerful major hurricane. Wilma still remains the most rescent major hurricane to hit the U.S, but that will likely change this year. The same thing happened with Mitch in 1998 as well. I didn't think so much of 93L, but in place of 93L, 94L will follow it. If 94L manages to stay in the Carribean for long enough, it could be a nasty storm, but if it races right off northwards, then it likely won't develop at all. Ryan1000 21:19, June 1, 2011 (UTC) 93L is nearly gone now. Yqt1001 10:59, June 2, 2011 (UTC) :And I'm not surprised either. The storms north of Panama also have an outside chance of developing, but as I mentioned earlier, it's only June 2nd, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't develop either. I mean, the season has just begun, and we will get our season rolling on later, but not right now. 2005 did get a june start and raged active the entire season, but the conditions this year are not the same as they were in 2005. I would expect a slow start in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, but still have a near to above-normal Atlantic season, and a rather quiet Pacific hurricane and typhoon season. The NIO should have gotten their first storm by now, because it's June 2nd, and that's their first peak, which is now falling down, and won't rise up again until November. Ryan1000 20:00, June 2, 2011 (UTC) 94L.INVEST And the storms north of Panama have finally been invested. NHC gives it 20% in the next 2 days. Yqt1001 20:01, June 3, 2011 (UTC) :It's actually looking better than when it did a few days back, but it looks a little ominous to me, being down in the Carribean alone. It's heading slowly to the WNW, but given the conditions this wave is in, under hardly an ounce of shear and very warm SST's, it wouldn't surprise me if it explodes in the Carribean. I will be watching out for Arlene over the next day or two. Things are starting to get really intersting out there. Ryan1000 20:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC) ::It is looking quite a bit better, and the NHC acknowledged that finally..they said that the area was conductive for development but only increased the odds to 30%. I guess the atmosphere isn't quite ready for rapid organization just yet. However, every day it sits there and slowly organizes could be one day closer to Arlene. I think we could see Arlene in the next 3-4 days, but probably after that. I won't be surprised if it does form however. Yqt1001 23:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC) :Neither would I, but there still is some shear in the Caribbean. That will hinder it a little bit, but if it can intensify despite the shear, then it might just be able to cause some trouble, because the SST's are still warm, and wind shear is much lower than where it should otherwise be. I am still on the lookout for Arlene, but I'm not imediately going to forecast a major hurricane out of this storm. Stay tuned on this one. Ryan1000 01:41, June 4, 2011 (UTC) ::The models aren't being very kind to 94L over the next few days, but that won't exactly mean it won't develop at all. The models aren't so kind to it because it is very large and disorganized. The hurricane season hasn't officially begun yet, but the tornado season certainly has. The season was one of the worst in history. Throughout a 3-day period from April 25-28, 330 tornadoes touched down, and 186 were on April 27 alone, which was the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, smashing the former record of 148 in the "1974 super outbreak".Of the 330 tornadoes that hit, 3 were EF-5's, and there were an additional 146 from April 14-16. The first of the 3 EF-5's killed only 3 people when it tore into a few counties in Mississippi, the second killed 22 in Smithville, Mississippi, and the third one killed 71 in Hackleburg, Alabama. There were also 158 more from May 21-26, including 2 EF-5's. One of which, the Joplin tornado, was the costliest tornado in history. When it hit Joplin, it caused 1 to 3 billion dollars in damage, and it killed over 140 people, making it the deadliest tornado to hit the U.S. since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. Aside from the Joplin tornado, an EF-5 also killed 9 people in Oklahoma 2 days later. Thus far, 2011 has 3 of the top 5 most active tornado outbreaks on record. Two May outbreaks in 2003 and 2004 had 289 and 229 tornadoes, respectively, but were both shattered by this year's April outbreak. There were 683 tornadoes recorded in April 2011, making it the most active tornado month on record. The former record was 542 from May 2003, and the former April record was 267 from 1974, less than half of what 2011 had. The 30-year average for April is a mere 135. The death toll from this year's tornado season was the highest death toll from any tornado season since the 1925 season, with 522 deaths thus far in 2011. Only the tri-state tornado of 1925 killed more than all of them together, with 689 deaths, over 2000 injuries, and more than 10,000 people homeless. Damage from this year's tornado season has thus far totaled from 4.5 to 9 billion dollars, making it the costliest tornado season in history. There was also an EF-3 that hit Springfield, Massachusets on June 1st, being only the third EF-3 to hit the state since 1950 and it killed 3 people, making it the third deadliest. This year is only behind 1965 and 1974 for the highest number of EF-3 or stronger tornadoes, and ties 1953 for the second highest number of EF-5's in one year on record, with 5. Only 1974 had more, with 6, and it's not over yet, either. That information of this year's tornado season was going a bit off-topic, but it goes to show mother nature hasn't been getting any friendlier with us. This invest likely won't develop soon, but our tornado season has been very active thus far, and it's just not stopping. Ryan1000 15:26, June 4, 2011 (UTC) :Back down to 20%. It has gotten quite a bit less organized so I'm not really at all surprised. Yqt1001 04:03, June 5, 2011 (UTC) Back to 30%. It's still ingesting tons of mid-level dry air and if that doesn't recede soon then I'm not sure what future this storm will have, if any. Most of the models agree that it will develop now though, so now that we have model support the odds are likelier. Recon is leaving in 30 minutes so we'll see what happens at the 1800UTZ update. Yqt1001 14:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :It has been flaring up and dying down from time to time, but it's still sitting in the Caribbean doing absolutely nothing, and that's because it has no steering currents. If it still fails to develop into Arlene, then the trough north of it will be unable to grab it, and then it will still be in the Caribbean. Many models take it to a TS soon, but after that happens, it will likely be pulled northward into Cuba and then out to sea. Ryan1000 16:14, June 5, 2011 (UTC) ::Up to 40% now, looks like it's time is coming (where it has to decide if it's going to develop or stay a low). Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC) :It's starting to near Jamacia, and if Jamacia can hinder it, then Arlene will have to wait. It appears this invest has thus far been having a really tough time in the Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised if it just doesn't develop, but there still remains hope for 94L. Ryan1000 20:52, June 5, 2011 (UTC) Looks like today will be the day it develops, if it does develop. Conditions are nearly the best today and it has organized pretty decently today. After today the shear goes up quite a bit and the storm will be doomed if it doesn't develop. I think that Arlene is out of the question, but TD1 isn't yet. Yqt1001 14:21, June 6, 2011 (UTC) :Up to 50% now. --Patteroast 18:12, June 6, 2011 (UTC) : :Down to 20%... it's falling apart, I'd be surprised if this thing becomes TD1 now. HurricaneFiona 12:34, June 7, 2011 (UTC) And it is quickly dieing. Now at 10% however I feel it truly has a 0% chance of developing now. Yqt1001 18:57, June 7, 2011 (UTC) :Yeah, I guess Arlene must wait untill later. The East Pacific may be the only basin that'll be fun to watch for now. Only the EPac is actually spitting out storms as of now; since the brief hot streak in the WPac, nothing has happened, and just like the SWIO, the NIO(although they don't account for many storms) hasn't even had their first storm yet, and they should have had one by now. The NIO may also be rather inactive in this year, not that it may matter anyhow, but until then, I'll be on the pacific hurricane season forum. Ryan1000 19:50, June 7, 2011 (UTC) Aaaaand it is back! Despite really high shear and being on top of Cuba, the NHC gives it 20% chance of developing. Yqt1001 00:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :94L is just prolonging the inevitable. I will give up all my possessions if it even becomes a TD. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 01:00, June 10, 2011 (UTC) ::"NEVER!!!", says 94L. It has a chance to become TD one, but I'm not counting on it. Currently it has a minor chance of developing, but I won't count on Arlene coming so soon. Ryan1000 02:15, June 10, 2011 (UTC) :And now it said never. It's down and out. Arlene will have to wait. Ryan1000 02:33, June 11, 2011 (UTC)